مدل سازی رفتاری رانندگان به هنگام مواجهه با عابرین پیاده با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون لجستیک

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی نوشیروانی بابل، بابل ، ایران

2 استادیار، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی نوشیروانی بابل، بابل ، ایران

چکیده

با توجه به میزان زیاد آسیب پذیری عابرین پیاده در تصادفات رانندگی، با شناسایی عوامل موثر در بروز اندرکنش بین خودرو - عابر و ارائه راهــــــکارهای مناسب در راستای حذف و یا کاهش اثرات این عوامل، می‌توان تعداد و شدت این گونه از تصادفات را کاهش داد. در تحقیق حاضر، با بررسی فیلم دوربین های نصب شده درون یک خودرو، رفتار و عملکرد 29 رانندهبه هنگام مواجهه با 289 مورد عابر پیاده مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت. شرکت کنندگان محدوده­ میدان اوقاف تا حمزه کلاو بالعکسبه طول 4 کیلومتر، در شهر بابل واقع در استان مازندران را رانندگی کردند. سپس با تحلیل این289اندرکنش بین خودرو و عابر، با استفاده از مدل های رگرسیون لجستیک دوگانه و چندگانه در نرم افزار SPSS، عوامل موثر بر روی عملکرد رانندگان شناسایی شد و میزان اثر هریک از این عوامل بر روی نوع عملکرد رانندگان تعیین گردید. بنابر نتایج، از بین 25 عامل مربوط به راننده، عابرین پیاده و ویژگی محیط مسیر که حین تحلیل اندرکنش ها،مورد مطالعه قرار گرفتند، عواملی نظیر سرعت خودرو، تعداد افراد عابر، توجه راننده به مسیر، محل دیده شدن عابرین توسط رانندگان هنگام نزدیک شدن خودرو، چگونگی عبور عابرین، عملکرد راننده جلوئی و همچنین مدت زمان اخذ گواهینامه، از مهم ترین عوامل تاثیرگذار بر عملکرد رانندگان به هنگام مواجه شدن با عابرین پیاده بودند.همچنین، مدل پیش بینی احتمال انجام عملکرد از سوی رانندگان و مدل عملکردهای متفاوت آن ها بر اساس عوامل تاثیرگذار،با استفاده از مدل لجستیک دوگانه و لجستیک چندگانه ارائه شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Modelling Behavior of Drivers Encountering Pedestrians using Logistic Regression

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abbas Sheikhfard 1
  • Farshidreza Haghighi 2
1 MSc. Grad., Department of Civil Engineering, Babol Noshirvani University of Technology, Babol, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Babol Noshirvani University of Technology
چکیده [English]

Due to the high number of pedestrians injured or killed in road accidents and regarding the importance of the vulnerability of pedestrians in accidents, analysis of factors affecting the incidence of collision of vehicles and pedestrians could lead to the identification of risk behaviour by pedestrians and vehicle drivers, by identifying risk factors in vehicle-pedestrian interactions, and use of proper strategy, both quantity and severity of such accidents can be reduced through by removal or decrease of the effect of this factors. In the present study, by examining the camera installed in a vehicle, Videography about the behaviour of drivers and pedestrians was used through three cameras were installed in the car, 29 driver’ behavior when faced with the case 289 pedestrians, were analysed. Participants drove the 4-kilometer Oghaf square to Hamze kola square route, in Babol, Mazandaran province, and then reversed it. The drivers were identified and the effect of each of these factors on driver performance was determined. Among the total 25 factors related to drivers, pedestrians and road environment characteristics that were studied, vehicle speed, the size of the group of pedestrians, the driver’s attention to road, location of pedestrians when noticed by approaching vehicle’s  drivers, pedestrians’ crossing style, behavior of front vehicle’s driver, and age of driver’s  license, the most important factors affecting the performance of drivers when faced with the pedestrians. Moreover, the probabilistic model predicting the probability of a performance, and the model of the varied performances based upon influential factors, were determined and presented, using binary and multinomial logistic regression.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Pedestrians accident
  • drivers behavior
  • drivers yield
  • pedestrians behavior
- حقیقی، فرشیدرضا و شجاعی، محمدحسین )2015) " بررسی رفتار عابرین پیاده در زمینه ی انتخاب گپ مناسب حین عبور از عرض خیابان: مطالعه موردی در مقابل درب اصلی یک دانشگاه"، دهمین کنگره بین المللی مهندسی عمران، دانشکـــده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تبریز، 15 تا 17 اردیبهشت.
-  Brosseau, M ., Zangenehpour, S., Saunier, N. and  Miranda-Moreno, L. (2013) “ The impact of waiting time and other factors on dangerous pedestrian crossings and violations at signalized intersections: A case study in Montreal”, Transportation Research Part F, Vol. 21, pp. 159–172
-  Cavallo,V., Dommesa, A., Vienne, F. and Aillerie, I. (2012) “Age-related differences in street-crossing safety before and after training of older pedestrians”, Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.44, pp. 42– 47
- Emre, O. and Engin, E. (2012) “Driver status identification from driving behavior signals”, Digital Signal Processing For in-Vehicle Systems and Safety, pp. 31-55.
-  Habibovic, A., Tivesten, E., Uchida, N., Bargman, J. and  Ljung, Aust, M. (2013)  “Driver behavior in car-to-pedestrian incidents: An application of the Driving Reliability and Error Analysis Method (DREAM)”, Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.50, pp. 554– 565.
-  Hunter, E., Salamati, K.,  Elefteriadou, L., Sisiopiku, V., Rouphail, N., Phillips, B. and Schroeder, B. (2015) “Driver yielding at unsignalized midblock crossings”, Proceedings of the 94th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C. www.ltrc.lsu.edu
-  John, J. A., Whitaker, D. and Johnson, D. G. (2001) “Statistical thinking for managers”, Chapman & Hall, CRC.
- Komarek, P. and Moore, A. (2003) “Fast robust logistic regression for large sparse datasets with binary outputs”,  In Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, no specifications.
- Langbroek, J., Ceunynck,T., Daniels, S., Åse Svensson, Aliaksei Laureshyn and  Tom Brijs, Geert Wets (2012) “Analyzing interactions between pedestrians and motor vehicles at two-phase signalized intersections-an explorative study combining traffic behaviour and traffic conflict observations in a cross-national context”, Lunds University. www.ictct.org
- Lenard, J. and Hill, J. (2004) “ Interaction of road environment, vehicle and human factors in the causation of pedestrian accidents”, Proceedings of International Conference On Esar (expert symposium on accident research), 3-4 september. Hannover, Germany. www.lboro.ac.uk
- Neale,V., Dingus, T., Klauer, S. H . Sudweeks, J. and  Goodman, M.  (2011) “An overview of the 100-car naturalistic study and findings”, Virginia Tech Transportation Institute,  National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, United States,  pp. 05-0400
 
-  Nowakowska. M. )2012)" Random forests in the evaluation of threat for pedestrian accidents in towns", Faculty of Management and Computer Modelling, Kielce University of Technology, Vol. 2, pp. 1-6
-  Schroeder, B. and Rouphail, M. (2011) “Empirical behavioral models to support alternative tools for the analysis of mixed-priority pedestrian-vehicle interaction in a highway capacity context”, Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 16, pp. 653–663
-   Salamaty, K., Schroeder, B., Duane, R., Geruschat, D. and Rouphail, N. (2014) “Event based modelling of driver yielding behavior to pedestrians at two-lane roundabout approaches”,  Transp Res Rec, Vol. 2389, pp. 1–11
-  Seipone, B. and Mphele, M. (2013) “Who owns the road? Exploring driver and pedestrian behaviour at zebra/pedestrian crossings in Gaborone, Botswana”, British Journal of Arts and Social Sciences, Vol. 13 ,  No. I. pp. ?????
-   Schroeder, B.  and  Geruschat, D. (2009) “When and why do drivers yield and what does this mean for pedestrians who are blind?” , Research Synthesis on Driver Yielding Behavior , International Mobility Conference Marburg, Germany, Wednesday, July 15. itre.ncsu.edu
-   Sucha, M.) 2014) “Pedestrians and drivers: their encounters at zebra crossings”, 8th. International Traffic Expert Congress. 8 to 9 May, Warsaw.  psych.upol.cz
-  Shinar, S. (2012) “Safety and mobility of vulnerable road users: Pedestrians, bicyclists, and motorcyclists”, Accident Analysis & Prevention ,Volume 44, Issue 1,  pp.  1–2
-  Wu, C. and Xiangling, Z. (2014) “Pedestrian gestures increase driver yielding at uncontrolled mid-block road crossings”, Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 70, pp.  235–244
-    Xia. J., Fonseka, J. and Falkmer, T. (2011) “Driver and pedestrian characteristics of pedestrian vehicle crashes in metropolitan Perth”, PATREC Research Forum –13 September, Page 1. www.cage.curtin.edu.au
-   Xiangling, Z. and Changxu, Wu.)2011) “ Pedestrians’ crossing behaviors and safety at unmarked roadway in China”, Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 43, pp. 1927–1936