بررسی عوامل رفتاری مؤثر بر فراوانی تصادفات و رویداد‌های نزدیک به تصادف موتورسیکلت‌سواران: مطالعه موردی شهر اصفهان

Understanding the behavioral patterns that influence motorcyclist accidents plays a significant role in developing traffic safety programs. The objective of this research was to investigate the relationship between motorcyclists' behavioral factors and the rate of accidents and near-miss incidents among riders in Isfahan. The standard "Motorcycle Rider Behavior" questionnaire was revised, with several items added to suit Iranian conditions. After data collection, Exploratory Factor Analysis identified four main factors: "Risky, Showy, and Impulsive Behaviors", "Intentional Violations", "Non-adherence to Safety Equipment Principles," and "Perceptual and Cognitive Errors". To evaluate the impact of these factors, two count regression models namely, "number of accidents in the last two years" and "number of near-miss incidents in the last three months," were developed. The results indicated that in both models, all behavioral factors were significant. However, the "Intentional Violations" and "Risky, Showy, and Impulsive Behaviors" factors had the greatest impact, with standardized coefficients of 0.8 and 0.6 in the first model, and 0.49 and 0.44 in the second. Among the 24 behaviors examined, "Failure to use turn signals" and "Changing lanes without checking mirrors" (with an average score of 3.3 out of 5) were identified as the most common high-risk behaviors. Behaviors such as "Using a mobile phone," "Failure to observe the speed limit," "Overtaking from the right," and "Weaving between lanes" (with an average score of 2.9 out of 5) ranked next. The findings of this research can be used to develop educational interventions, oversight measures, and policy-making for enhancing the safety of motorcyclists.