تحلیل قابلیت اطمینان زمان سفر خطوط اتوبوس با استفاده از داده‌های سیستم موقعیت‌یاب جهانی

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار، دانشکده فنی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

3 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده نقشه برداری، تهران، ایران

4 دانشیار، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

قابلیت اطمینان زمان سفر بر عملکرد و کیفیت خدمات شبکه اتوبوس­رانی تأثیر بسزایی دارد. در این مقاله تلاش می­شود تا با استفاده از داده­های زمان سفر ثبت‌شده توسط سامانه موقعیت­یاب شرکت اتوبوس‌رانی تهران، به تحلیل قابلیت اطمینان زمان سفر بخشی از دو خط اتوبوس در شهر تهران پرداخته شود. در این راستا، ابتدا، انواع شاخص­های قابلیت اطمینان زمان سفر به‌کاررفته در پژوهش­های پیشین تبیین و تشریح می­شوند. در ادامه، با استفاده از داده­های زمان سفر برداشت‌شده از شبکه اتوبوس­رانی شهر تهران، تغییرات این شاخص­ها در بازه­های مختلف زمانی روز بررسی می­شوند. علاوه بر این، میزان هم‌قوارگی چندین توزیع آماری با توزیع احتمال تجربی داده­های زمان سفر بررسی می­شود. نتایج حاصل از تحلیل داده­های زمان سفر نشان می­دهد که به‌طورکلی، تغییرپذیری زمان سفر اتوبوس در دوره اوج عصر بیشتر از دوره اوج صبح در خطوط مورد­مطالعه است. همچنین، توابع توزیع­ احتمال بور، لُگ-لوجستیک و لُگ-نرمال با دقت بیشتری می­توانند تابع توزیع احتمال زمان سفر یک مسیر اتوبوس‌رانی را تقریب بزنند. علاوه­بر این، نتایج این پژوهش نشان می­دهد که بکارگیری توزیع­های ترکیبی می­تواند میزان نیکویی برازش در تخمین توزیع داده­های زمان سفر را افزایش دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Bus Travel Time Reliability Using GPS Data

نویسندگان [English]

  • mojtaba rajabi 1
  • navid khademi 2
  • Roozbeh Foroozandeh 3
  • afshin Shariat 4
چکیده [English]

Due to the considerable effects of bus travel time reliability on the efficiency of the bus system and its quality of service, in this paper, we attempt to analyses the travel time reliability using a GPS travel time data set of two bus routes in Tehran, Iran. To this end, we firstly review some of travel time reliability measures introduced in the literature. We then explore the variability of these measures in the course of a day. Our results indicate that the variability of travel time in the afternoon peak hours is more that in the morning peak hours. We also examine the distribution of travel time for different time intervals of the day. Based on empirical data, it can be concluded that the distribution of travel time is not only wide but also rightly skewed. Results also show that Burr, Log-logistic and Log-normal distributions are superior to other probability distributions in terms of fitting accuracy. Furthermore, travel time can be more precisely fitted using mixture probability distributions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Travel time reliability
  • Stochastic and dynamic networks
  • GPS
- Al-Deek, Haitham and Emam, B. (2006) "New methodology for estimating reliability in transportation networks with degraded link capacities", Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems, Vol. 10, No.3, pp.117-129.
- Arezoumandi, M. and Bham, GH. (2011)  "Travel time reliability estimation: Use of median travel time as measure of central tendency",  First Congress of Transportation and Development Institute (TDI), Chicago, United States.
- Clark, Stephen D, Grant-Muller, Susan and Chen, Haibo. (2002) "Cleaning of matched license plate data", Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 1804, No.1, pp.1-7.
- Fu, Liping (2002) "Scheduling dial-a-ride paratransit under time-varying, stochastic congestion", Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Vol. 36, No.6, pp.485-506.
- Higatani, Akito, Kitazawa, Toshihiko, Tanabe, Jun, Suga, Yoshiki, Sekhar, Ravi, and Asakura, Yasuo. (2009) "Empirical analysis of travel time reliability measures in hanshin expressway network", Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems, Vol. 13, No.1, pp.28-38.
- Khademi, Navid, Rajabi-Bahaabadi, Mojtaba, Shariat Mohaymany, Afshin and Samadzad, Mahdi. (2016) "Day-to-day travel time perception modeling using an adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)", EURO Journal on Transportation and Logistics, Vol. 5, No.1, pp.25-52.
- Kieu, Le-Minh, Bhaskar, Ashish and Chung, Edward (2014) "Public Transport Travel-Time Variability Definitions and Monitoring", Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 141, No.1, pp.1-9.
- Lam, Terence C. and Small, Kenneth  A. (2001) "The value of time and reliability: measurement from a value pricing experiment", Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Vol. 37, No. 2–3, pp. 231-251.
- Lim, Tjen-Sien and Loh, Wei-Yin (1996) "A comparison of tests of equality of variances", Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Vol. 22, No.3, pp. 287-301.
- Ma, Zhenliang, Ferreira, Luis, Mesbah, Mahmoud and Zhu, Sicong (2016) "Modeling distributions of travel time variability for bus operations", Journal of Advanced Transportation, Vol. 50, No.1, pp. 6-24.
- Martchouk, Maria, Mannering, Fred and Bullock, Darcy (2010) "Analysis of freeway travel time variability using Bluetooth detection", Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 137, No.10, pp. 697-704.
- Mazloumi, Ehsan, Currie, Graham and Rose, Geoffrey (2009) "Using GPS data to gain insight into public transport travel time variability", Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 136, No.7, pp. 623-631.
- Montgomery, Douglas C., Runger, George C. and Hubele, Norma F. (2010) "Engineering statistics", 5th edition , John Wiley & Sons.
- Polus, Abishai (1979) "A study of travel time and reliability on arterial routes", Transportation, Vol. 8, No.2, pp.141-151.
- Pu, Wenjing (2011) "Analytic relationships between travel time reliability measures", Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 2254, No.1, pp.122-130.
- Susilawati,????, Taylor, Michael A. P. and Somenahalli, Sekhar V. C. (2013) "Distributions of travel time variability on urban roads", Journal of Advanced Transportation, Vol. 47, No.8, pp.720-736.
- Taylor, Michael A. P. and Susilawati (2012) "Modelling travel time reliability with the burr distribution", Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 54, No.1, pp.75-83.
- Van Lint, J. W. C., van Zuylen, Henk J. and Tu, H. (2008) "Travel time unreliability on freeways: Why measures based on variance tell only half the story", Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 42, No.1, pp.258-277.
- Yao, Baozhen, Hu, Ping, Lu, Xiaohong, Gao, Junjie and Zhang, Mingheng (2014) "Transit network design based on travel time reliability", Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, Vol. 43, Part 3, pp.233-248.
- Yazici, M. Anil, Kamga, Camille and Mouskos, Kyriacos C. (2012) "Analysis of travel time reliability in New York city based on day-of-week and time-of-day periods", Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 2308, No.1, pp.83-95.
- Yuan, Jing, Zheng, Yu, Zhang, Chengyang, Xie, Xing, and Sun, Guang-Zhong (2010) "An interactive-voting based map matching algorithm",  Eleventh International Conference on Mobile Data Management, Kansas, USA.