Measuring Stability in the Long-Term Trend of the Frequency of Traffic Fatalities on Rural Roads in the Provinces of Iran

Document Type : Scientific - Research

Authors
Sina Sahebi 1
Mana Meskar 2
Rojin Jalilzadeh 3
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Geotechnical and Transportation Engineering, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Iran
2 PhD student, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Iran
3 M.Sc., Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tehran University of Arts, Iran
10.22119/jte.2022.357046.2614
Abstract
One of the most important issues in traffic safety is assessing the stability of the fatalities trend. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the road safety plan to achieve a specific goal or policy objective, it is necessary to measure the stability of the number of fatalities and injuries. The purpose of this study is to study the changes in trend of the fatalities in the provinces of the country, to investigate the ability to model the optimal trend in road safety and also to identify provinces with poor performance with the aim of investigating the causes of a steady upward trend in casualties. In this study, in order to evaluate the safety stability of rural roads in the provinces of Iran, the development of simple trend lines and exponential trend lines has been considered. These trends were developed for the number of casualties on the rural roads of the province, as well as due to the shocks and fundamental changes in the volume of road traffic in recent years for the number of fatalities to the exposure (multiply the length of the road and the volume of traffic) in the province. Based on the results and findings, the provinces of Khorasan Razavi, Kurdistan, Gilan, and Hamedan are the provinces that have had a good performance in terms of reducing the number of casualties caused by accidents on rural roads. Therefore, the best experiences, plans and, documents of the mentioned provinces can be used in order to strengthen and improve the level of road safety in other provinces. Sistan and Baluchestan province also has a steady increasing trend in fatalities due to rural accidents and therefore needs special attention and detailed planning to investigate the causes of this trend.

Keywords

  • زارعی، ی. و استعلاجی، ع. (1397). "ارزیابی سطح توسعه استان­های کشور در حوزه ایمنی و ترافیک جاده­ای (مقطع زمانی1392-1390)". جغرافیا, 56, 52-74.

 

  • علوی، س. و اسفندیاری، ا. (1398). "ارزیابی عملکرد استان­ها در ایمنی حمل و نقل جاده­ای". مطالعات مدیریت ترافیک, 57-90.
  • (2010). CHAPTER 3 FUNDAMENTALS . In Highway Safety Manual (pp. 14-16). Washington, D.C.: American Association of State Highway Transportation Professionals.

 

  • Al-Hasani, G., Khan, A. M., Al-Reesi, H., & Al-Maniri, A. (2019). Diagnostic time series models for road traffic accidents data. International Journal of Applied Statistics and Econometrics, 2, 19-26.

 

  • Antić, B., Grdinić, M., Pešić, D., & Pajković, V. (2020). "Benchmarking of the road safety performance among the regions by using DEA". Transportation Research Procedia, 45, 78-86. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2020.02.065

 

  • Bawaneh, M., & Simon, V. (2019). "Anomaly Detection in Smart City Traffic Based on Time Series Analysis". 2019 International Conference on Software, Telecommunications and Computer Networks (SoftCOM), (pp. 1-6). doi:23919/SOFTCOM.2019.8903822

 

  • Besharati, M. M., Bondarabadi, M. A., Memariyan, M., & Kashani, A. T. (2019). Patterns of road traffic fatalities in the six most populous provinces of Iran, 2011–2015. Archives of Trauma Research,, 8(3), 177-181.
  • Besharati, M. M., Tavakoli Kashani, A., & Washington, S. (2021). A comparative analysis of road safety across the provinces of Iran from 2005 to 2015. International journal of sustainable transportation, 15(2), 131-139.

 

  • Bliss, T., & Breen, J. (2012). "Meeting the management challenges of the Decade of Action for Road Safety". 48–55. doi:1016/j.iatssr.2011.12.001

 

  • Broughton, J., Allsop, R., Lynam, D., & McMahon, C. (2000). "The Numerical Context for Setting National Casualty Reduction Targets". Crowthorne, Berkshire: TRL Report.

 

  • Clausen, V., & Kim, J.-R. (2000, September). "The Long-Run Stability of European Money Demand". Journal of Economic Integration, 15, 486– 505.

 

  • Duffey, R., & Saull, J. (2003). "Know the Risk: Learning from errors and accidents: safety and risk in today's technology". Burlington: Butterworth–Heinemann.
  • Elvik, R. (2010). "The stability of long-term trends in the number of traffic fatalities in a sample of highly motorised countries". Accident Analysis and Prevention, 42, 245–260. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2009.08.002

 

  • Evans, A. (2003). "Estimating transport fatality risk from past accident data". Accident Analysis and Prevention, 35, 459–472.

 

  • Hauer, E. (1997). "Observational Before–After Studies in Road Safety. Estimating the Effect of Highway and Traffic Engineering Measures on Road Safety". Emerald Publishing.

 

  • Hauer, E. (2015). "The Art of Regression Modeling in Road Safety". Springer, Cham. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-12529-9

 

  • Lavrenz, S., Vlahogianni, E., Gkritza, K., & Ke, Y. (2018, August ). "Time series modeling in traffic safety research". Accident Analysis & Prevention, 117, 368-380. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2017.11.030

 

  • Li, X., Wu, L., & Yang, X. (2018, November ). "Exploring the impact of social economic variables on traffic safety performance in Hong Kong: A time series analysis". Safety Science, 109, 67-75.

doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2018.05.010

 

  • Mozaffari, M., Taghizadeh-Yazdi, T.-Y., Nazari-Shirkouhi, S., & Asadzadeh, S., (2021, May 12 ). "Measuring Traffic Safety Culture toward Achieving Road Safety Performance: A DEA Approach with Undesirable Inputs-Outputs". Cybernetics and Systems, 601-624. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/01969722.2021.1914947

 

  • Rosić, M., Pešić, D., Kukić, D., Antić, B., & Božović, M. (2017). "Method for selection of optimal road safety composite index with examples from DEA and TOPSIS method". Accident Analysis & Prevention, 98, 277-286. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2016.10.007

 

  • Seyedalizadeh Ganji, S. & Rassafi, A. (2018, December 05). "Measuring the road safety performance of Iranian provinces: a double-frontier DEA model and evidential reasoning approach". International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, 156-169. doi:10.1080/17457300.2018.1535510

 

  • WHO Report. Retrieved from World Health Organization:

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffic-injuries

Quarterly Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 15, Issue 2 - Serial Number 59
Winter 2024
Pages 3549-3571

  • Receive Date 20 August 2022
  • Revise Date 05 November 2022
  • Accept Date 03 December 2022