ارائه رویکردی مکانمند جهت قطعه‌بندی و تحلیل فراوانی تصادفات در راه‌های دوخطه دوطرفه برون‌شهری با استفاده از الگوریتم رگرسیون پواسون

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان
میثم عفتی 1
امیرمحمد رمضانپور 2
1 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی راه و ترابری، دانشکده فنی، دانشگاه گیلان، ایران
2 کارشناس ارشد، گروه مهندسی راه و ترابری، دانشکده فنی، دانشگاه گیلان، ایران
10.22119/jte.2024.401352.2670
چکیده
محققان از انواع قطعه‌بندی‌های ثابت و متغیر در مدل‌های فراوانی تصادف برای مطالعات ایمنی در راه‌های برون‌شهری استفاده نموده‌اند. تحقیقات انجام‌شده حاکی از آن است که در حوزه ایمنی مسیرهای برون‌شهری و بخصوص تحلیل عوامل مؤثر در فراوانی تصادفات قطعات حادثه‌خیز، قطعه‌بندی پویا نتایج بهتری ارائه می‌دهد. به‌طورکلی، هدف از تجزیه‌وتحلیل ایمنی قطعه‌های راه برون‌شهری، تسهیل طراحی استراتژی‌های مقابله‌ای مؤثر و کارآمد برای بهبود ایمنی با تعیین متغیرهای مؤثر مرتبط با تصادفات برای کاربران این نوع راه‌ها است. لذا، هدف این تحقیق ارائه رویکردی مکانمند مبتنی بر GIS به‌منظور قطعه‌بندی پویای راه‌های دوخطه-دو طرفه برون‌شهری و تعیین عوامل مؤثر بر فراوانی تصادفات این قطعه‌ها با تأکید بر متغیرهای مرتبط با هندسه و آب‌وهوای راه است. بدین منظور مدل پواسون با پارامتر تصادفی بر روی داده‌های تصادف سال‌های 1390 تا 1395 قطعات پویای خروجی فاز قطعه‌بندی پیشنهادی در محور دوخطه-دوطرفه لوشان-قزوین اعمال شد. نتایج ضمن اثبات کارایی روش قطعه‌بندی پیشنهادی در قطعات موردبررسی، نشان داد که نوع میانه دوطرفه مجزا، موقعیت مکانی تصادف، باند سواره‌رو، آب‌وهوای صاف، عجله و شتاب بی‌مورد راننده و تصادف وسیله نقلیه با شی‌ء ثابت به ترتیب با اثر حاشیه ای 304/8، 763/4، 825/3، 909/1 و 205/1 بیشترین تأثیر را بر فراوانی تصادفات دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Proposing a Geospatial Approach for Segmentation and Analysis of Rural Two-Lane Two-Way Roads Crash Frequency Using the Poisson Regression Algorithm

نویسندگان English

meysam effati 1
AmirMohammad Ramezanpoor 2
1 Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering (Road and Transportation), Faculty of Engineering, University of Guilan, Iran
2 M.Sc., Department of Civil Engineering (Road and Transportation), Faculty of Engineering, University of Guilan, Iran
چکیده English

Researchers have used various types of fixed and dynamic segmentation in crash frequency models for safety studies on rural roads. The conducted research indicates that dynamic segmentation provides better results in rural roads safety and especially in the analysis of factors affecting the frequency of high crash potential road segments. Generally, the purpose of analyzing the safety of rural road segments is to facilitate the design of effective and efficient strategies to improve safety by determining the effective variables related to crashes for the users of these type of roads. Therefore, the aim of this research is to present a spatial approach based on GIS for dynamic segmentation of rural two-lane two-way roads and determine the factors affecting the frequency of crashes in these segments, emphasizing on road geometry and weather variables. For this purpose, the Poisson model with random parameter was applied to the Lushan-Qazvin two-lane two-way crash data from 2010-2015 based on the dynamic parts of the proposed segmentation phase. The results, while proving the effectiveness of the proposed segmentation method in the investigated segments, showed that two-way divided median, location of the crash, roadway conditions, clear weather, driver's haste and unnecessary acceleration, and vehicle crash with a fixed object, respectively, with 8.304. 4.763, 3.825, 1.909 and 1.205 marginal effects have the most effect on the frequency of crashes.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Crash frequency
Poisson regression with random parameter
Dynamic segmentation
Crash safety
Geospatial Information Systems (GIS)
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  • تاریخ دریافت 05 تیر 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری 25 شهریور 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش 19 دی 1402