ارزیابی تاثیر خرابی روسازی براحتمال وقوع تصادفات به روش درخت تصمیم، (مطالعه موردی: ناهمواری‌های روسازی)

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار دانشگاه یزد

2 دانشجو

چکیده

تصادفات ترافیکی پیشامد نامطلوب و اجتناب ناپذیر جریان ترافیک هستند که سبب اتلاف سرمایه و در نهایت عمر انسان‌ها می‌شوند. تحقیقات نشان داده‌اند بین شرایط روسازی و تصادفات رابطه وجود دارد همچنین مشخصه‌های خرابی‌ روسازی مانند عمق خرابی و مساحت آن یکی از پارامترهای مهم و تاثیرگذار بر رفتار رانندگان می‌باشد. در این مطالعه به بررسی تاثیر خرابی روسازی راه‌های درون‌شهری و شرایط ترافیکی موثر بر تصادفات پرداخته شده است. از آنجایی که ناهمواری روسازی، تاثیر بسزایی بر تصادفات جاده‌ای داشته و لازم است در برنامه‌ریزی ایمنی جاده‌ها و بهبود وضعیت روسازی‌ها درنظر گرفته شود، به صورت موردی از بین خرابی‌های روسازی، فرورفتگی‌ها و برآمدگی‌های سطح روسازی مورد مطالعه قرار گرفتند. اطلاعات 18 نقطه از روسازی دارای خرابی و برای هر نقطه عکس‌العمل و سرعت 30 راننده در حین مواجه با آن ثبت گردید. جهت تعیین عوامل موثر بر میزان انحراف رانندگان از روش درخت تصمیم استفاده شده است. درخت تصمیم به دلیل نمایش گرافیکی از نتایج، به سادگی قابل فهم و تفسیر است. درخت تصمیم داده‌ها در این تحقیق، بر اساس الگوریتم درخت دسته‌بندی و رگرسیون ((CRT ساخته شده است. درخت حاصل نشان می‌دهد متغیرهای مساحت خرابی، طول و عرض آن در مقایسه با متغیرهای حجم ترافیک، سرعت وسیله‌نقلیه، فاصله مرکز خرابی تا گوشه سمت راست خط عبوری و نوع ناهمواری (فرورفتگی یا برآمدگی) تاثیر بیشتری بر انحراف رانندگان از مسیر را داشته‌اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of the Accidents Risk Caused by Pavement Failure Condition by Decision Tree (Pavement Roughness)

نویسنده [English]

  • mohammad mehdi Khabiri 1
1 assistance professor of Yazd university
2 student
چکیده [English]

Car accidents are undesirable and inevitable event in traffic flow, causing loss of wealth and human life. Research has shown that is a relationship between the pavement condition and crashes. Characteristics of pavement failure such as depth of failure and its area is one of important and impressive parameters on the behavior of drivers. This study investigates the influence of pavement failure of urban road and traffic condition on the crash. Since pavement roughness has a significant impact on road accident, it is necessary to be considered in road safety planning and improving pavement condition. In case of failure of pavement bumps and falling surface of pavement was studied. 18 data points were measured on deteriorated pavement and response and 30 drivers speed that faced with the failure were recorded. To determine the factors affecting the amount of traffic diversion, the decision tree method was used. Decision tree for a graphical representation of the results is easy to understand and interpret. In this study, the data decision tree was constructed by Classification and Regression Trees (CRT) algorithm. The tree shows the variables such as area, Length and width of pavement roughness compared to value of traffic, speed, failure center distance to the right side lane and kind of roughness (bump and sag) has greatest effect on driver direction change.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • pavement bumps and falling
  • decision tree
  • CRT algorithm
  • driver direction Change
  • safety
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