A Case Study of Modeling the Severity of Vehicle Accidents Based on the Parameters of Drivers' Age and Vehicle Type

Document Type : Scientific - Research

Authors
Ali Edrisi 1
Mohammad Reza Oraiy 2
Mahyar Akbari 2
1 Associate Professor, Road and Transportation Engineering Department, Civil Engineering Faculty, K. N. Toosi University of Technology
2 M.Sc., Road and Transportation Engineering Department, Civil Engineering Faculty, K. N. Toosi University of Technology
10.22119/jte.2025.468914.2714
Abstract
Traffic accidents are a leading cause of injuries and fatalities worldwide, with substantial economic, social, and health impacts. Iran ranks 113th out of 175 countries in accident rates, where these incidents are a primary cause of death. Analyzing factors influencing accident severity from human, environmental, road, and vehicle perspectives is crucial. This study aims to identify parameters affecting accident severity, focusing on vehicle type and driver's age, using data from Khorasan Razavi province and SPSS software. Results from multiple and binary logistic models show that young, adolescent, and elderly drivers significantly impact injury and fatal accident rates. Young drivers' high enthusiasm and risky behaviors, coupled with elderly drivers' decreased ability and reaction speed, contribute to this. Motorcycles and trucks have the highest probability of injury and fatal accidents due to rider vulnerability and their involvement in severe accidents. In contrast, buses and minibuses show reduced accident severity, likely due to strict controls on public transportation fleets.
Keywords
Accident Severity
Multinomial Logit
Binary Logit
Vehicle Type
Driver's Age
Subjects
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Quarterly Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 17, Issue 2 - Serial Number 67
Winter 2026
Pages 5255-5270

  • Receive Date 21 July 2024
  • Revise Date 19 January 2025
  • Accept Date 10 July 2025