ارزیابی اقتصادی فازی سیستم‌های حمل‏‏ و‌نقل همگانی با فرض وجود عدم قطعیت در متغیرهای اقتصادی: مطالعه موردی متروی قم

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

چکیده

برای تعیین اقتصادی‏ترین سناریو از بین چندین سناریوی پیشنهادی برای سرمایه‏گذاری، یکی از روش‌ها، ارزیابی اقتصاد مهندسی یا تحلیل هزینه-فایده است که در آن تمامی اثرات (هزینه‏ها و فایده‏های) ناشی از اجرای هر کدام از سناریوها محاسبه می‏شود. سپس، با مقایسه نتایج این ارزیابی‌ها، سناریوی برتر انتخاب می‏شود. حال اگر تعیین این هزینه‏ها و فایده‏ها، با عدم قطعیت روبرو باشد، نیاز به ابزاری است که قادر باشد ارزیابی اقتصادی را در شرایط عدم قطعیت انجام دهد. هدف اول از این مقاله، استفاده از نظریه مجموعه‏های فازی به عنوان ابزاری برای ارزیابی اقتصادی در شرایط عدم‌ قطعیت است. دومین هدف، تعمیم روابط کلاسیک ارزیابی اقتصادی در محیط فازی است که این‌کار با فرض فازی بودن متغیرهای نرخ بهره، نرخ تورم، نرخ تبدیل ارز، دوره ساخت و دوره عمر مفید پروژه (با توجه به شرایط روز کشور) انجام می‏شود. هدف سوم، مقایسه روش فازی و روش کلاسیک اقتصاد مهندسی با انجام یک مثال عددی است که برای این‏کار، در پایان این مقاله، مطالعه موردی احداث متروی قم انجام می‏شود. دو متغیر نرخ تبدیل ارز فازی و میزان عمر پروژه فازی، از متغیرهای جدیدی است که در این مقاله به صورت فازی معرفی شده است که دلیل عدم‌ قطعیت آنها وجود مواردی مانند سوء مدیریت‌ها، تحریم‌ها و تورم کنترل نشده است. با توجه به نتایج این مقاله، می‏توان دریافت که روش ارزیابی اقتصادی فازی نسبت به روش کلاسیک آن، دید جامع‌تری به کارشناسان، تصمیم گیران و مسئولین اجرایی می‌دهد تا بتوانند با توجه به میزان حساسیت انتخاب هر سناریو نسبت به تغییرات متغیرهای اقتصادی، سناریوی برتر را انتخاب کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Economic Evaluation of Public Transit Systems Considering Uncertainties in Economic Parameters: The Case of City of Qom Metro System

چکیده [English]

In order to find the most economical scenario/alternative among the different proposed set of scenarios/alternatives, one approach is to perform an engineering economy evaluation, or stated more precisely, a cost benefit analysis (CBA). Within the conventional CBA context, all the monetizable costs and benefits of each decision alternative are determined and the CBA procedure is put forward by these deterministic and exact values. However, when the costs and benefits embody considerable uncertainties, one needs to leverage an adapted tool to be capable to perform the CBA with such uncertainties. In this regard, Fuzzy set theory could be a promising approach to handle the inherent uncertainties in the economic evaluation of the projects. In this paper, the classical equations of the CBA are extended to the fuzzy environment and according to the economic situation of Iran, the interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate, and the construction period is considered as the fuzzy variables. Subsequently, the proposed fuzzy-CBA approach is employed for the economic evaluation of the Qom metro system. The fuzzy variables used in this paper are selected according to the specific economic situation of the country that was affected by international sanctions, high inflation rates, and mismanagement of the economy.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic Evaluation
  • Cost-benefit analysis
  • Fuzzy Set Theory
  • Uncertainty
  • Mass transit systems
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