Car Following Modeling Based on Multi-Variate Adaptive Regression Spline, Study Area: A Highway Zone

Authors

1 MSc. Student, School of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

2 Assistant Professor, School of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Recently, utilizing the traffic simulation models have been known as an efficient traffic control and management tool.  However, all traffic micro-simulation models require a car-following model so that the simulations would be performed based on it. Many car-following methods have been proposed yet, but all these methods have several number of parameters to calibrate, in a way a little variation over them creates considerable disturbance. In this paper a new car following model was proposed using the Multi-variate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) method that do not need any calibration stage. The proposed model inputs are leading vehicle velocity, relative velocity of leading and following vehicles and spacing between them and the output is the acceleration of the following car. As a result of this paper, a car following model with the Mean Squared Error (MSE) equal to 0.004 and the correlation coefficient (R) equal to 0.98 was achieved using the function estimation method through the MARS method. Finally, the MARS output was compared with the results achieved by the Helly linear model, the GHR model and the Gipps model. Based on micro simulation experiment it was shown that the proposed method was more accurate than those models.

Keywords

References

- ناصرعلوی، س. ص.، صفارزاده، م.، ممدوحی، ا.ر.،  ندیمی، ن. (1390) "شبیه سازی و کاربرد آن در مطالعات ترافیک؛ مدل تعقیب خودرو "، فصلنامه علمی ترویجی راهور، سال، هشتم شماره 15، مرداد 1390، ص 59-74.
-  ناصرعلوی، س. ص.، صفارزاده، م.، ندیمی، ن. (1389) " تخمین رفتار تعقیب خودرو با استفاده از مبانی معادلات دیفرانسیل "، پژوهشنامه حمل و نقل سال هفتم، پاییز 1389 شماره 3، ص 261-274.
-Aghabayk, K., Sarvi, M., Forouzideh, N. and Young, W. (2014) "Modelling heavy vehicle car‐following behaviour in congested traffic conditions", Journal of Advanced Transportation, Vol. 48, No. 8: pp. 1017-1029.
-Brackstone, M. and McDonald, M. (1999) "Car-following: a historical review", Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, Vol. 2, No. 4, pp. 181-96.
-Chakroborty, P. and Kikuchi, S. (1999) "Evaluation of the General Motors based car-following models and a proposed fuzzy inference model", Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, Vol. 7, No. 4, pp. 209-235.
-Cho, H-J. and  Wu, Y-T. (2008) "Microscopic analysis of desired-speed car-following stability", Applied Mathematics and Computation, Vol. 196, No. 2, pp. 638-645.
-Elith, J. and Leathwick, J. (2007) "Predicting species distributions from museum and herbarium records using multiresponse models fitted with multivariate adaptive regression splines", Diversity and Distributions, Vol. 13, No. 3, pp.265-275.
-Friedman, J. H. (1991) "Multivariate adaptive regression splines", The Annals of Satistics, 1-67.
-Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R. and Friedman, J. (2009) "The elements of statistical learning", Springer.
- Helbing, D., Hennecke, A., Shvetsov, V. and Treiber, M. (2001) MASTER: macroscopic traffic simulation based on a gas-kinetic, non-local traffic model. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Vol. 35, No. 2, pp. 183-211.
- Helbing, D. and Tilch, B. (1998) "Generalized force model of traffic dynamics", Physical Review E, Vol. 58, No. 1: pp. 133-138.
- Helly, W. (1959) "Simulation of bottlenecks in single-lane traffic flow", Proceedings of the Symposium on Theory of Traffic Flow, pp. 207-238.
-Kalnins, K., Jekabsons, G. and Rikards, R. (2009) "Metamodels for optimisation of post-buckling responses in full-scale composite structures", Proceedings of 8th World Congress on Structural and multidisciplinary optimisation, Lisbon, Portugal.
-Li, Y. and Sun, D. (2012) "Microscopic car-following model for the traffic flow: the state of the art". Journal of Control Theory and Applications, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp.133-43.
-Milborrow, S. (2014) "Notes on the earth package", URL http://cran.r-project.org/package=earth.
-Punzo, V., Ciuffo, B. and Montanino, M. (2012) "Can results of car-following model calibration based on trajectory data be trusted?" Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 2315, No. 1, pp. 11-24.
-Saifuzzaman, M. and Zheng, Z. (2014) "Incorporating human-factors in car-following models: a review of recent developments and research needs", Transportation research part C: Emerging Technologies, Vol. 48: pp. 379-403.
-Samui, P. (2013) "Multivariate adaptive regression spline (Mars) for prediction of elastic modulus of jointed rock mass". Geotechnical and Geological Engineering, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp.249-253.
-Suzuki, H., Ranjitkar, P., Nakatsuji, T. and  Takeichi, Y. (2005) "An extended car-following model combined with a driver model",  Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol. 6,  pp.1545-1556.
-Wei, D., Chen, F. and Zhang, T. editors (2010) "Least square-support vector regression based car-following model with sparse sample selection", Intelligent Control and Automation (WCICA), 8th World Congress on IEEE.
-Wilson, R. E. (2001) "An analysis of Gipps's car‐following model of highway traffic", IMA Journal Of Applied Mathematics, Vol. 66, No. 5, pp. 509-537.
-Yang, D., Jin, P., Pu, Y. and Ran, B. (2013) "Safe distance car-following model including backward-looking and its stability analysis". The European Physical Journal B, Vol. 86, No. 3, pp. 1-11.
- Zhang, Zhi-yong. and Yi, Huang (2011) "A regression car-following model based on time delay differential equation on expressway", 11th International Conference of Chinese Transportation Professionals (ICCTP).
- Zhang, Z. Y., Rong, J. and Ren, F. T. (2002) “Dynamic car-following behavioral data collection using the instrumented GPS vehicles”,  Journal of Beijing Uuniversity of Technology, Vol. 2, pp.189–193. (In Chinese)
 
 
Quarterly Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 8, Issue 2 - Serial Number 2
January 2017
Pages 273-290

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 03 June 2015
  • Revise Date: 14 September 2015
  • Accept Date: 09 January 2016

Share

How to cite

Statistics