Measuring Stability in the Long-Term Trend of the Frequency of Traffic Fatalities on Rural Roads in the Provinces of Iran

Sahebi, Sina; Meskar, Mana; Jalilzadeh, Rojin

doi:10.22119/jte.2022.357046.2614

Measuring Stability in the Long-Term Trend of the Frequency of Traffic Fatalities on Rural Roads in the Provinces of Iran

Document Type : Scientific - Research

Authors

¹ Assistant Professor, Department of Geotechnical and Transportation Engineering, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Iran

² PhD student, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Iran

³ M.Sc., Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tehran University of Arts, Iran

10.22119/jte.2022.357046.2614

Abstract

One of the most important issues in traffic safety is assessing the stability of the fatalities trend. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the road safety plan to achieve a specific goal or policy objective, it is necessary to measure the stability of the number of fatalities and injuries. The purpose of this study is to study the changes in trend of the fatalities in the provinces of the country, to investigate the ability to model the optimal trend in road safety and also to identify provinces with poor performance with the aim of investigating the causes of a steady upward trend in casualties. In this study, in order to evaluate the safety stability of rural roads in the provinces of Iran, the development of simple trend lines and exponential trend lines has been considered. These trends were developed for the number of casualties on the rural roads of the province, as well as due to the shocks and fundamental changes in the volume of road traffic in recent years for the number of fatalities to the exposure (multiply the length of the road and the volume of traffic) in the province. Based on the results and findings, the provinces of Khorasan Razavi, Kurdistan, Gilan, and Hamedan are the provinces that have had a good performance in terms of reducing the number of casualties caused by accidents on rural roads. Therefore, the best experiences, plans and, documents of the mentioned provinces can be used in order to strengthen and improve the level of road safety in other provinces. Sistan and Baluchestan province also has a steady increasing trend in fatalities due to rural accidents and therefore needs special attention and detailed planning to investigate the causes of this trend.

Keywords

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