Urban Shopping activity duration modeling by Nonparametric- parametric duration models, case of Qazvin city

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

2 MSc. Student, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Since models of transport demand have shifted from trip-based to activity-based approaches, prediction of activities and their duration has gained further importance. Activity duration is an important component of activity participation behavior of individuals, and therefore, an important determinant of individual travel behavior. Since duration data is non-negative and often censored, it follows non-normal distributions, hence, linear regression is not a suitable model. Duration models offer vaster suitability for this kind of data and thus have been used for behavioral analysis of individual trips. Since for the past two decades, shopping has been under spotlight as indispensable diurnal activities for human, the current paper has tried to compare the results of several approaches with their different modeling assumptions, by modeling duration shopping activity concurrent with recognition of influential factors on duration variable and proper distributions for such data. case study of this research, is the shopping trips of 2 and 3 home-based trip tours data obtained from inquiry a sample of Qazvin residents comprising personal and household information, the characteristics of transport networks and the features of susceptible sites for doing shopping activity which constitute 99 percent of Qazvin's citizen's daily travels. The analysis and analogy of modeling results indicate estimation of parametric approach with regard to goodness of fit, is better than other approaches and suitable distributions has used for shopping activity duration data is log-logistic distribution. Considering that scale parameter estimated of model is lower than one, the hazard curve is non-monotonic and an inverted U-shape. Worker's female than male and male than other, has associated lower duration to shop with significant difference (p=0.005). Non- motoric travel modes has positive influence to reduction of shopping duration (p<0.05). In addition, covariates such as distance and commercial destination travel attraction, are significant portion to increase of shopping activity duration (p<0.05).

Keywords

References

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Quarterly Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 8, Issue 1 - Serial Number 29
September 2016
Pages 141-154

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History

  • Receive Date: 13 December 2014
  • Revise Date: 21 February 2015
  • Accept Date: 24 February 2015

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