Predicting Pedestrian Accidents in Rural Roads Using Ordered Logit Model

Document Type : Scientific - Research

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Abstract

This study aims to predict the pedestrian accident severities and affecting factors in rural roads. An ordered logit model was applied for analyzing the factors affecting the death or injury of pedestrian accidents in Tehran province rural roads during years 1388 to 1390. More than 50 variables were selected for describing the dependent variable. Further analysis on these variables showed that variables such as driver characteristics; time of accident; the vehicle involved in the accident; pedestrian role in accident; distance from the nearest police station; the cause of the accident scene; and the number of vehicles involved in the accident are significant in model and should be considered for predicting model. The results indicated that the type of vehicles involved in the accident, location of accident, time of accident and pedestrian guilt have a significant role in the severity of pedestrian accidents. Finally, with respect to nature of the studied variables, recommendations were proposed for enhancing the safety of pedestrians crossing thepedestrians crossing the road in Tehran province rural road.

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