آنالیز زمانی و مکانی تصادفات رانندگی با استفاده از تراکم پنجره ای فازی

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده ژئودزی و ژئوماتیک (نقشه برداری،) دانشگاه صنعتی خواجه نصیرالدین طوسی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار، دانشکده ژئودزی و ژئوماتیک (نقشه برداری،) دانشگاه صنعتی خواجه نصیرالدین طوسی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

در این تحقیق الگوی زمانی و مکانی تصادفات رانندگی بزرگراه کرج - قزوین بر حسب پارامترهای مختلف بررسی شده است. تغییر الگوی زمانی و مکانی تصادفات با توجه به زمان، عامل انسانی، نوع برخورد و نوع تصادف مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. تحلیل زمانی تصادفات با استفاده از نمودار عنکبوتی انجام شده است. برای بررسی الگوی توزیع مکانی تصادفات ابتدا داده های تصادفات به اعداد فازی تبدیل، و سپس با استفاده از تراکم پنجره ای فازی الگوی مکانی توزیع تصادفات بر حسب پارامترهای مختلف بررسی شده است. نتایج تحقیق نشان میدهند که عوامل مختلف همچون ساعت، نوع برخورد، نوع تصادف، نقش عامل انسانی، روز های هفته و وضعیت جوی الگوی مکانی مشخصی دارند و با بررسی آنها میتوان علت الگو های مختلف را کشف کرد. با استفاده از نتایج این تحقیق، مناطق بحرانی بر اساس عاملهای مختلف مشخص شده اند و پیشنهادهایی برای کاهش وقوع تصادفات ارائه شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Road Accidents with Fuzzy Kernel Density

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mehdi Ahmadi 1
  • Abbas Alimohamadi 2
چکیده [English]

Understanding the underlying structure of vehicle crashes is essential for improving safety on the roads. Past research has found that accident tend to cluster both spatially and temporally. This paper applied spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal techniques to investigate patterns of Road Accident in Karaj-Qazvin highway-Iran between 2009 and 2012, at different characters. Spider graphs were adapted to identify temporal patterns of vehicle crashes at different situation. The spatial structures of vehicle crashes were analyzed using Fuzzy Kernel Density and then result was compared with Kernel Density Estimation. Comap was then used to demonstrate the spatio-temporal interaction effect on vehicle crashes and spatial pattern of accident at different characters. Characters that influence at spatial and temporal pattern of accident are: Time, Week day, Type of accident (Fatal, Injury and Non-Injury), Type of Collision (Vehicle with Vehicle, Vehicle with Pedestrian, Vehicle with Objects and Overturn), weather situation (Clean, Rain and Snow), Human Behavior (Hurry, Fatigue and Sleepy and Low Inattention). The results show significant differences in spatiotemporal patterns of Road Accident for various crash causes. The techniques used here have the potential to help decision makers in developing effective road safety strategies.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Road accident
  • spatio-temporal density
  • Kernel density estimation
  • fuzzy Kernel density estimation
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